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Data story · data as of 2026-11-04 · v0.2.1-real

2030: the first test

Everyone watches the $17.9B wall in 2031. The market meets this cohort earlier — in 2030. Four bonds, four different issuers, $8.95B of face value (31.9% of the index). Their common features are even tidier than 2031's: all straight 5-year paper, every one priced between May and November 2025 — and $6.95B lands inside a 17-day window between 15 November and 1 December 2030.

Maturing in 2030
$8.95B
4 bonds / 4 issuers
Share of index face value
31.9%
$28.06B total sample
Landing within 17 days
$6.95B
15 Nov – 1 Dec
Tenor
5.0 years
straight five-year paper, all four
Maturity timeline: H2 2030
Ordered by maturity date, marker positions proportional to the real dates; pink markers fall inside the 17-day window.
2030-05 2030-09 2031-01 06-01 · CRWV 9.25% · $2.00B 11-15 · WULF 7.75% · $3.20B 12-01 · APLD 9.25% · $2.35B 12-01 · CIFR 7.125% · $1.40B 2030

Note: APLD and CIFR both mature on 2030-12-01, so their markers nearly coincide — which is exactly the point of the chart.

The four bonds, one by one
Coupon, maturity, face value, structure and issuance spread all come from the SEC filing terms; tenor = pricing date to maturity.
IssuerCoupon / maturityFace valueStructureTenorIssue spreadPricing dateFund mark
CoreWeave CRWV 9.25% '302030-06-01$2,000MUnsecured5.0y517.7 bp2025-05-19709.2 bp (+191.5)
TeraWulf WULF 7.75% '302030-11-15$3,200MSecured5.0y402.6 bp2025-10-30—
Applied Digital APLD 9.25% '302030-12-01$2,350MSecured5.0y550.6 bp2025-11-14—
Cipher Mining CIFR 7.125% '302030-12-01$1,400MSecured5.0y342.9 bp2025-11-06—
Why this is the first test

1. All 5-year paper: the market of 2025 sets the exam of 2030

Every one of the four is a straight 5.0-year issue (CRWV 5.0 / WULF 5.0 / APLD 5.0 / CIFR 5.1), priced between May and November 2025. One issuance window, one tenor choice — so their maturities are structurally locked into H2 2030. That is not coincidence, it is the result of a shared funding preference.

2. $6.95B in 17 days, from three separate companies

WULF's $3.2B matures on 15 November; APLD's $2.35B and CIFR's $1.4B both on 1 December. Three independent issuers, two dates, one 17-day window — for the market this is not one company's refinancing, it is a quarter's concentrated supply. The 2031 wall is taller, but 2030 arrives first.

3. Only one of them is marked by funds — and we say so

Only CRWV 9.25% '30 (the sole unsecured bond here) has an N-PORT quarterly mark: issued at 517.7bp, fund marks imply 709.2bp at 2026-08-31, i.e. 191.5bp wider. The other three have no reported fund holdings yet, and we do not fill in estimates — if there is no data, there is no number.

Keep going

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Scope and red line: face values, coupons, maturity and pricing dates all come from SEC filings; issuance spreads follow the published method and can be recomputed line by line; fund marks come from quarterly SEC Form N-PORT filings (Level 2 fair value, not traded prices). The page states terms and timing as a matter of fact. It is not a rating, valuation, default forecast or investment advice of any kind, and it makes no judgement about whether any issuer can refinance.