NCSX issuer in focus · Basis watch

CoreWeave cash bond vs CDS: a +58bp basis

Headlines quote CoreWeave risk in CDS spreads or bond yields. This page gives the cash-bond spread, bond by bond — the measure only secondary trades can produce — plotted against the CDS quote.

As of 2026-10-30, CoreWeave's (CRWV) 9% USD bond due 2031-06-01 (CUSIP US21873SAC26) trades at a secondary-market credit spread of 1158bp (last price 79.9, trade-weighted YTW 15.6% vs a 4.02% Treasury benchmark), while 5-year CDS quotes around 1088–1100bp (Reuters, 2026-10-15, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence/LSEG; CICC cites 1100bp). The cash bond trades ~+58bp wider than CDS — a positive basis, i.e. the cash market prices more pessimistically than the CDS market.
Cash-bond spread (2031)
1158 bp
30D range 1150.7–1302.3bp
5Y CDS (ref.)
≈1100 bp
S&P Global/LSEG · CICC
Basis (cash − CDS)
+58 bp
Positive: cash more pessimistic
30D change
-151.3 bp
214 trades / $41.2mm a day

30 sessions: cash-bond spread path vs CDS reference

spreads in bp over Treasury · source FINRA TRACE · dashed line = CDS quote reference (not our product)
CoreWeave 9% 2031 cash-bond spread · 30 sessions (bp) 1158 bp as of 2026-10-30 1062115112391328T-29T-19T-9today CDS ≈ 1100 bp Source: SpreadBench · NCSX · TRACE secondary trades · CC BY 4.0 · spreadbench.com
Why the basis matters
  1. Different measure, different story: headlines cite CDS ~1100bp, but cash traders face 1158bp — the extra 58bp is liquidity premium and funding friction, not noise.
  2. CDS is clean, cash is not: CDS is standardised; cash spreads embed liquidity, repo funding and Cheapest-to-Deliver effects — positive basis is normal under stress, but its size is itself informative.
  3. Tenor is only approximate: the bond matures 2031-06 (~4.6y) vs 5y CDS — read the basis as an estimate, not a precise number.
Cross-checks against public reporting
  • The Economist (2026-10-18): CoreWeave 5y bond yield 15%, price down 16% since July, CDS implying >60% 5-year default probability — our bond-level replication gives YTW 15.6%, price 79.9.
  • CICC (《AI 次贷的金融裂缝》) cites CDS at 1100bp and yields at 15% — the gap between yield-talk and spread-talk is exactly what this page fills.
  • Sector context: Deutsche Bank notes neocloud HY spreads "widening rapidly" with debt/EV implying a single-B rating; NCSX-HY stands at 865.8bp (face-value weighted, 11 issuers).
FAQ
What is CoreWeave's bond credit spread?
As of 2026-10-30, CoreWeave's 9% USD bond due 2031-06-01 (CUSIP US21873SAC26) trades at a credit spread of 1158bp; the issuer-level face-value-weighted spread across all its outstanding USD bonds is 1,000.8bp (SpreadBench / NCSX, computed from FINRA TRACE public secondary trades, seed-stage data).
How does the cash-bond spread compare with CoreWeave CDS?
The cash bond trades at 1158bp vs roughly 1088–1100bp on 5-year CDS (Reuters 2026-10-15 citing S&P Global/LSEG; CICC cites 1100bp) — a positive basis of about +58 to +70bp. The cash market prices more pessimistically than the CDS market.
Why is the cash-bond spread wider than CDS?
A cash-bond spread embeds a liquidity premium and funding costs, while CDS is a standardised derivative; positive basis is common under credit stress. Tenor matching is also approximate: the bond matures 2031-06 (~4.6y) vs 5-year CDS.
How are these numbers computed?
Single-bond spread = (trade-weighted YTW − Treasury benchmark) × 100, from FINRA TRACE public secondary trades. Methodology v0.1.1 is fully public and replicable (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23931330).
Can I cite these numbers?
Yes — free citation under CC BY 4.0. Use the standard form "NCSX-Composite (SpreadBench)" and quote the as-of date, methodology version and DOI. Commercial redistribution requires a licence (/pricing.html#licensing).
Data status & red lines：data_status: seed — series frozen as of 2026-10-30. SpreadBench aggregates public secondary trades only — not a credit rating, not investment advice. CDS quotes are third-party press citations, not our product. Cite methodology v0.1.1 and DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23931330.
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